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CompuBox: Learning from Marquez-Diaz

Yesterday, we took a look at the CompuBox numbers of Floyd Mayweather Jr.'s last five fights, and how even in a sport that isn't driven by stats, someone like Floyd comes through in the numbers. Today, CompuBox is kind enough to send along an analysis of Juan Manuel Marquez's last fight, his February knockout win and 2009 Fight of the Year contender against Juan Diaz.



Analyzing the numbers (or trying to, anyway):

  1. Marquez going 32/81 per round was up from 17/50 in his last five fights. As JMM has gotten older, he's gotten more and more offensive-minded, and the fight with Diaz saw him display what I'd even call average (at best) defense. Part of this likely came from the fact that Diaz is feather-fisted, and Marquez knew he could win a shootout. But that's a big leap in style, adding over 30 punches thrown per round.
  2. Also in his previous seven fights, Marquez had landed 38% of his power punches, a good number but nowhere near the heat-seeking missile stat that is 47% power punches landed against Diaz. The fight was a war, and Mayweather isn't likely to oblige that sort of fight, but if Floyd really thinks he's that much bigger, stronger, faster, hey, you never know.
  3. Marquez's punch stats in the Diaz fight are incredibly good, even though defensively he wasn't so hot. It is what it is, and I say again he and Nacho Beristain aren't going to fight Floyd the way they did Diaz, and if they try to, well, good luck. But if Marquez is going to have a shot in this fight, I think he hast to at least find a healthy middle ground between the 17/50 per round he landed for five fights and the 32/81 he bombed out against Juan Diaz. As much as Mayweather says that coming forward, throwing punches, and attacking the body isn't the way to beat him since others have tried that, trying and finding success are two different things. It's what I think Marquez will at least try early on.
  4. If whatever he does doesn't work, remember that Marquez is arguably the best in the game when it comes to switching it up on the fly. He adapts to his opponents incredibly well.

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