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Pacquiao-Margarito: Ted the Bull's Breakdown and Prediction

Ted "The Bull" Sares is back with another big fight breakdown.

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Give him [Margarito] one more chance. He is human, he made a mistake. People are worried about me fighting this guy. We are going to give him a chance.

--Manny Pacquiao

It is time for me to show all of the people that I am back and I am good. It's going to be an exciting fight.

--Antonio Margarito

[W]hen Manny can hit somebody; I usually don't worry that much about it.

--Freddie Roach

Speed kills.

-Cus D‘Amato

Jerry Jones has ushered in a new era in boxing as 51,000 fans witnessed at Cowboys Stadium last March when Manny defended his welterweight title.

--Bob Arum

These two will go at it on November 13, 2010 at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas in what promises to be a competitive fight between two exciting stars with the vacant World Boxing Council (WBC) super welterweight championship at stake.

Pacquiao and Margarito boast a combined record of 89-9-2 (65 KOs) -- a winning percentage of 89% and a victory by knockout ratio of 73%.


Quality of Opposition

Manny has fought 10 fights against 5 guys who arguably have a shot at being inducted into the Hall of Fame. But he also fought and beat many other outstanding fighters with great records coming in. If you throw a dart at his list of opponents, you might, for example, hit South Korean Seung-Kon Chae (23-0), Mexican Oscar Larios (56-4-1), Thai Wethya Sakmuangklang (41-3), Thai Fashan 3K Battery (44-7-1), Thai Chatchai Sasakul (33-1), or Colombian Jorge Eliecer Julio (44-3).

Margo has fought at a high level as well. His foes have included Kermit Cintron (twice), Paul Williams, Daniel Santos (twice), Antonio Diaz, Andrew Lewis, Sergio Martinez, David Kamau, and Sugar Shane Mosley who hammered him in January 2009

Both know what it is to be a world champion.

Edge to Manny

Common Opponents

Joshua Clottey, who both fighters beat by UD, but Manny did it somewhat more impressively. This one is a wash.

Miguel Cotto, who both fighters destroyed. Margo's destruction, however, may have provided an easy footprint for Manny.

The Corners

Monster edge to Manny with the calm and collected Freddie Roach who is as savvy as there is and knows how to get in an opponent's head better than most. You can bet that Freddie is going over the Mosley beat down in fine detail and looking at those right hands that SSM used with shocking impunity.


Two aggressors but one, Manny, has far more finesse. Both will take a punch to deliver one and each is a merciless closer once he has his man hurt.

Manny has an offensive whirlwind style reminiscent of the great Aaron Pryor. He possesses an arsenal the qualitative content and completeness to which only Floyd Mayweather Jr. can stake claim-and that claim is becoming more questionable with time. He is tough, durable and mentally resilient. With his in-and-out movement, ability to attack from any angle, effective jabs, fight-ending hooks from both hands, great stamina, and a sound defense, there is little to criticize. However, Manny is susceptible to uppercuts and Margorito's are much more powerful than those of Clottey. This will be a big danger area for Pac Man.

Margarito, pre-Mosley, was an incoming monster who used a high punch volume and kept the pressure on his opponents until he broke them. His stoppage of Cotto was frightening in the manner in which it was delivered. In fact, Margo actually jogged after Cotto which is a rare thing to see in boxing. His chin, pre-Mosley, was granite-like and that allowed him to keep coming.


Mosley cracked the granite and once that is done, thing have a way of changing for the worse. Manny has a surprise edge here, but he must avoid Margo's uppercuts which is to say, he must avoid fighting Margo inside,

Ring IQ

Both are savvy and experienced fighters. Manny follows instructions very well, though his ability to adjust is exemplary. Margo is predictable and lacks Manny's overall command of the ring. The edge goes to Manny here.


Pacquiao is 5'6 ½" and has a reach of 67". Margarito is 5'11" and has a reach of 73". A big advantage goes to Margarito here, but Pac Man has never let that be an issue before. According to their contracts, neither boxer can be more than 151 pounds at the weigh-in on the day before the fight. That is a concession to Pacquiao, 31, who began fighting professionally in the 108-pound division, and will be trying for a title in his 8th weight class. Margarito, 32, has been fighting at 147 pounds and up since 1996.


Cuts: Manny is more prone to facial cuts and bruises than Margo.

Momentum: Pac Man gets the big nod. He is on a great streak of big wins (Clottey, Cotto, Hatton, De La Hoya, Diaz, Marquez, Barrera, Solis, Morales, and Larios). Margo is coming off of a long and forced lay off with his last win a UD over Roberto Garcia in Aguascalientes, Mexico on May 5, 2010.

Pre-fight hand wrapping issues: The issue has been vetted ad nauseum and I don't intend to add to it except to say it might be more of advantage for Margarito. Why? Because he may have "redemption" as motivator. As for Pacquiao, I hardly seem him as the type worrying much about what's in Margo's gloves. Look at it this way, when a bank that has gone under has been taken over by the FDIC, it becomes a very safe bank. The same holds true for Antonio. In a strange way, he just might be the "cleanest" fighter in the world on November 13.

Home Advantage: There could be as many as 70,000 fans in attendance with most screaming "Mexico, Mexico." This can only help inspire the Tijuana Tornado who enjoys fighting in front of HIS fans.

Focus: In May 2010, Pac Man was officially proclaimed Congressman of the province of Sarangani (most provinces in the Philippines are politically volatile). These responsibilities can only have a negative impact on his ring work, for it's difficult to imagine how he can focus in a training camp while attending to the demands of political office.

Mosley Beating: My theory on this one has always been that part of the beating was due to what had occurred in the dressing room before the fight. That may well have done serious damage to Margo's mental state -- being caught and all -- and may have set him up for a big beat down; taking nothing away from Mosley's rocking right hand shots. The point here is that it is easy to underestimate how dangerous Margarito can still be, though some say Margo will seek an appropriate time to go down -- and then run off into the sunset with his big payday. To that I say "hogwash." I just don't see that happening in front of 70,000 fans.


Speed will be the critical variable in this fight. And Manny has the speed (and skills to go with it).But before he prevails with a 10th or 11th round stoppage, he will be rocked several times by a stalking Margo using his heavy hands. Around the 7th or 8th, I see a facially bruised and puffed up Manny finally asserting himself but not nearly as easily as he did with Cotto.

He should begin to go into his signature cruise control late in the 8th canto, positioning a game but confused Margarito for the kill with cumulative in-and-out hooks and shots from different angles. The end will come with a super fast flurry that will snap The Tornado's neck back mandating the referee to halt the action late in the fight.

Pacquiao will know he was in a real fight this time, enough so that this could well be his swan song. Heck, being a Congressman in the Philippines has to be easier than this.

What do you think?

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