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Andre Ward on Mayweather vs Canelo: Alvarez can only win on lucky punch

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Super middleweight king and HBO analyst Andre Ward gives his thoughts on Saturday's Mayweather-Canelo fight, concluding what most will: the fight is Floyd's to lose.

Scott Heavey

Andre Ward probably isn't seeing this Saturday's Floyd Mayweather vs Canelo Alvarez fight much differently than most experts will, and believes that the 23-year-old Alvarez has only a puncher's chance in the fight, with Mayweather's experience against high-level opposition a key difference.

"I think that you've got to go with Floyd Mayweather. Even though Canelo has a lot of fights, he's really got a lot of...really there's just one guy that jumps out that is a top-level fighter, and that's Austin Trout. Baldomir was older. No disrespect to Shane Mosley, but Shane was a little older, even though Shane was still dangerous."

... "I just don't see anything other than Canelo landing a lucky punch that gives him a shot to win. And even in landing a lucky punch, that doesn't mean that Floyd Mayweather is just going to fold and crumble and be knocked out. Floyd has gotten hit in fights, and he's taken those hits and he's come back and he fights. I just don't see it. If I'm wrong, it won't be the first time that I'm wrong, and it may not be the last. But I just don't see it."

Ward says that he's good to go for a November 16 fight against Edwin Rodriguez, but Andre's really the only one even talking about that fight. With Rodriguez working with adviser Al Haymon now, he's not going to be fighting on HBO unless something drastic changes in that relationship, and it's doubtful that a Ward-Rodriguez fight is enough to make them bend back and accept Haymon fighters on their airwaves again.