Golovkin vs Lemieux: How will the fight do on pay-per-view?

October 17 is a big night for Gennady Golovkin (or if you're the ever romantic Jim Lampley, Gennady Gennadyevich Golovkin). A rising organic star in the sport of boxing, Golovkin gets his wish and will headline his first HBO pay-per-view, facing power punching David Lemieux for the WBA and IBF middleweight titles.

Golovkin (33-0, 30 KO) has proven to be a reliable ratings draw for HBO as his career has progressed and he's spread as a must-see fighter by word of mouth and great, undeniable highlight packages that could get anyone's attention. He's a middleweight with power, skill, and a charming personality.

But drawing on TV and drawing on pay-per-view are two vastly different things. And if Golovkin wants to remain a pay-per-view headline fighter, he's going to have to prove that he can pull in the $69.95 or whatever for this fight from enough people to make it not just worthwhile, but obvious that he should remain in the role.

Lemieux (34-2, 31 KO) is an easy sell as an opponent, but still, he's not going to contribute much to pay-per-view sales in the United States. He's not a star fighter here, though he could be if he goes on a tear, starting with a win in this fight.

If Mayweather-Berto the roughly 400,000 on pay-per-view that has been reported (or even the high-end 550K that was floated as a best case scenario after the fight), does that speak to a lack of interest in boxing in our post-Mayweather-Pacquiao world, or to a lack of interest in Floyd Mayweather, and in particular his fight with Andre Berto? Is Golovkin coming to pay-per-view at an unfortunate point, when people just aren't looking to shell out extra money for fights?

How do you see this fight doing in sales?