FanPost

Does Beterbiev Break Through Or Will Gvozdyk Keep Impressing?

THE STORY

There is a decent chance that fight fans -- some that might even consider themselves hardcore fight fans -- are unaware of perhaps the year's most compelling match up.

On Friday in Philadelphia's Liacouras Center, Light-Heavyweight world titlists Artur Beterbiev and Oleksandr Gvozdyk will face off in perhaps the toughest pick 'em affair on the calendar.

Both men are skilled, former world level amateurs, both have had similar success as professionals. Both are virtually within their pQrimes and are relatively fresh with unblemished records. Both have shown serious power and -- perhaps more intriguing still -- have shown they can be pretty badly hurt but managed to come back.

If you've ever found yourself complaining about mismatches in the sport but somehow miss watching this gift of a fight....slap yourself.

Hard.

As mentioned, both have so much in common it's almost a bit scary. Where you begin to notice the difference is within the nuance, underneath the similarly patterned surface.

While both men have shown power as professionals, you would likely argue Beterbiev has more fight-altering power out of the pair. Both have solid pop, make no mistake, but Beterbiev seems to have the sort of power that might hurt you even if it didn't land exactly on the target.

Gvozdyk, meanwhile, is the likely more polished fighter in regards to skill. Yes, Beterbiev has underappreciated skills and fans get caught up in his 100% KO ratio a bit too much to notice the subtle moves he performs. Having said that, Gvozdyk makes it so his techniques are impossible to overlook. At his best, he is a very pretty fighter to watch.

Beterbiev may have better hooks, Gvozdyk may have the better uppercuts. Both are quick with the straight right hand. Gvozdyk moves well and Beterbiev does well in cutting off the ring. Gvozdyk does some of his best work countering off the back foot, while Beterbiev is almost always looking to come forward.

Where one shines, the other seems to have an answer. When one suffers in this category, he makes up for it in that category. Both can punish; both have been rocked.

Just going off the eye test, you aren't left with much to use in terms of deciding an outcome. The numbers don't really help all that much more, either.

THE NUMBERS

On paper, it might appear you run into some separation when peering into the numbers but that's only until you take a closer look.

Taking a look at their age, for example, you see Beterbiev is 34 while Gvozdyk is 32. Really not much in that, especially when you consider that Beterbiev hasn't been in many wars -- or even fights -- as a pro and is still relatively fresh.

You move into size and their dimensions. On paper, Gvozdyk looks the bigger man as he is about two inches taller (6'2" compared to 6') and has about three inches more as far as reach (76" compared to 73"). Still, that doesn't exactly determine the bigger man on fight night.

For starters, just looking at them seems to suggest that Beterbiev has a thicker, stockier frame. When you also factor in that Artur fought at a weight limit of 200 pounds at the 2011 world championships (coincidentally losing to Gvozdyk's countryman Oleksandr Usyk), you can see that Gvozdyk is the longer man but not really the bigger man.

While Beterbiev is certainly the more accurate of the two (31% compared to 26%) in their last five fights, Gvozdyk is the considerably busier man, throwing 578 more shots in that same span. That's an average of 115 more punches per fight.

Again, fairly hard to separate the fighters.

THE PREDICTION

Still, that's sort of the point, that's why this fight is so good. This shouldn't be a rarity in the sport and yet it's quite surprising looking at two highly-skilled fighters compare so evenly in many respects.

However, it doesn't make this choice easy at all.

If you learn anything about me, you'll learn I tend to favor style over power more often than not. That's not to say I will typically pick against punchers, I just tend to let my predictions lead with which fighter has their own personal style down pat more than which can hit harder.

That doesn't exactly help me here. Both men are in their primes and know what they do well and what doesn't work in their favor most often. So, I have to base this pick on what I think is most likely to occur. And, with that, I can envision two outcomes.

If action picks up early and both are throwing consistently, Beterbiev has the edge. He has more pop and is more accurate. That spells trouble for Gvozdyk, who can whack a bit himself but does take a few more rounds to get going.

I can also imagine a fight where Gvozdyk plays the backdoor a bit more early, gets his man's timing down and waits to counter and set traps, much the same way he did against Adonis Stevenson, another fighter that had exceptional power. With that style of fight, Gvozdyk can rack up points and potentially walk Beterbiev into something if he gets impatient.

While it's impossible to know for sure, my gut tells me the latter is what I'll have to select. Again, I won't be surprised regardless of any outcome, but I'm favoring Gvozdyk as the fight draws near. Just barely.

He will keep that guard up high, circle away from the power and let go quick combinations before turning and changing angles. This will do him well enough to win a relatively close fight in points.

WINNER: Oleksandr Gvozdyk via 12UD.

THE ODDS

Some very interesting options if you're a betting man heading into fight night.

More or less, the odds tell you what boxing experts will tell you -- which is that this is an even money fight. You can find Gvozdyk a slight favorite at -135 with Beterbiev coming in at +105. And from there, you will find those odds moving up and down slightly for both men.

You're looking at something of an 8.5 over/under with reasonable odds when buying an extra round if you feel it's needed. Of course, you can also bet on if the fight will or won't go the distance. Betting that the fight will go the distance gives you +162 odds; betting a stoppage for either man gives you odds of -192.

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Currently, I'm 2-0 with 1 exact predictions. You can tell me how wrong am I post-fight @JayCalderon_JOB on Twitter. Appreciate all comments, shares and what have you.

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