[Disclaimer: I wouldn’t bet your money on fights, I’d just pocket the money you gave to me and scamper away into the night. This is not betting advice. We’re just telling you where the odds are and how the fights are being seen on the books.]
It’s going to be a very busy Saturday in boxing, with five world titles on the line across three shows, and various prospects and whatnot in action. So let’s go show-by-show and lay out what the oddsmakers are seeing as of fight morning.
Bad Left Hook will have live coverage for all three cards today.
Showtime, Brooklyn, NY (9:00 pm ET)
Deontay Wilder is listed between -833 and -1000 to retain his WBC heavyweight title against mandatory challenger Dominic Breazeale, who is between +475 and +705. If this were a fight in the same division, with a top-ranked titleholder against a guy who’s either back end or just outside of the top 10 in the division, the odds might be even a little wider, but this is the heavyweights, and Dominic Breazeale can punch. One punch can change a fight more at heavyweight than any division. Our staff likes Wilder to win, too, however.
To demonstrate the sort of odds Wilder-Breazeale might have if they were, say, featherweights, take a look at the lines on WBC titleholder Gary Russell Jr against Kiko Martinez. Now Martinez is not top 10, period, nor is he just outside, but I’d argue that Martinez at 126 is about the same as Breazeale at heavyweight, really. Kiko’s a solid fighter, current European champ, former world titleholder at 122. Russell is between -4520 and -25000. The latter is not a typo. Martinez is anywhere between +1000 and +3625.
The Showtime opener will see unbeaten 140-pounder Juan Heraldez take on capable veteran Argenis Mendez. Heraldez is between -397 and -455, with Mendez between +291 and +348.
Showtime will also air prelims starting at 6:30 pm ET. Robert Alfonso is -1865 to -3333 against Iago Kiladze at +900 to +1235 in a heavyweight fight. Richardson Hitchins is -5000 to -10000 in his junior welterweight matchup against Alejandro Munera, who is +1150 to +4475. And Gary Antuanne Russell is -2500 to -5000 for his junior welterweight fight against Marcos Mojica, who is +900 to +2300.
DAZN, Glasgow, Scotland (2:00 pm ET)
The two big World Boxing Super Series semifinal fights are also both IBF title fights.
Ivan Baranchyk will defend the IBF junior welterweight title against Josh Taylor in the main event. Taylor is at home in Scotland and is the more highly-ranked fighter across the board with independent rankings, and he’s favored between -445 and -800. Baranchyk is listed between +347 and +425, but anyone who can crack like Baranchyk can be a live dog.
Naoya Inoue is also a favored challenger in the co-feature against IBF bantamweight titleholder Emmanuel Rodriguez. Inoue is between -450 and -1250, with Rodriguez between +400 and +607. Rodriguez is a good fighter, but Inoue has thus far earned his “Monster” nickname.
Our staff likes Taylor and Inoue in these fights, for what it’s worth.
ESPN+, Stevenage, England (2:30 pm ET)
The vacant WBO super middleweight title is on the line between Billy Joe Saunders, a former middleweight titleholder, and Shefat Isufi, who is also a person. Saunders is listed between -4000 and -10000, a huge favorite. Isufi is between +1160 and +3000.
Joe Joyce, the 33-year-old heavyweight prospect, is the favorite against old man Alexander Ustinov, absolute brick shithouse of a human being. Joyce is between -5000 and -10000, with Ustinov between +1025 and +3600. Again, with the heavyweights, anyone who can punch has a chance, but Ustinov is 42 and way past his best days.
Brad Foster will put his British super bantamweight title up against the Commonwealth title held by Ashley Lane. Foster is between -833 and -1400 in this fight, and Lane between +450 and +917. Lane is just 13-8-2 overall and Foster is 10-0-1, but the domestic competition level at 122 in the UK is such that Lane could be a bit live here. He lost to Josh Wale in 2016 and Foster beat Josh Wale in March, but there’s two-and-a-half years between those fights, and none of that means everything in boxing, anyway. Lane’s won six straight. Foster is and deserves to be the favorite, no doubt, but if you’re ever gonna see a 13-8 fighter beat a 10-0 fighter, this has a better chance than most times.