This Friday night on ESPN from Oxon Hill, Maryland, fast-rising lightweight Teofimo Lopez (13-0, 11 KO) faces Japanese veteran Masayoshi Nakatani (18-0, 12 KO) in an ESPN+ main event.
Our staffers make their picks.
Scott Christ
There’s no particularly good reason to pick the 30-year-old Nakatani to beat the 21-year-old rising sensation Lopez, at least not on paper. Nakatani is 18-0 (12 KO) at domestic level in Japan and has held the OPBF title since 2014. More likely than not, he will go back to Japan and continue to be the OPBF champion after Friday. But as we’re doing a lot of fight picks this week and I’m not particularly keen to open the series by reading the 100th comment about how boring it is that we all picked the same outcome again, as if it’s our fault that boxing matchmaking really isn’t that interesting too often when you actually do more than glance at it, here you go, you jackals. In my great sacrifice to help you believe this is more interesting than it really is, I will say that Nakatani is taller and longer and has his Man Strength, which is something boxing commentators really love talking about the last few years.
Here’s how I’m pretending I think it’ll go: Lopez starts hot, drops Nakatani in the second or third, Nakatani hangs in, drops Lopez in the sixth, Lopez gets his rhythm back in the eighth and appears to have survived the worst of things, then is stopped in the 10th. In all candor I may have just talked myself into this being what I actually think, I don’t even know anymore. Nakatani TKO-10
Wil Esco
Masayoshi Nakatani has so far spent his entire professional career fighting in Japan, mostly against soft competition. So it’s really nothing against Nakatani, who is pretty decent, but he’s just running into a buzz saw here in Teofimo Lopez. Lopez is currently being groomed as one of Top Rank’s next generation of stars, and appears to have all the physical tools and showmanship to do it. But, to put it plainly, there’s just a solid talent gap between Lopez and Nakatani, and Lopez basically holds all the advantages (particularly in the speed and power department). I don’t really have a lot to say on this fight because I think Nakatani will come to the U.S. with something to prove, but I fully expect Lopez to plow through him fairly easily. Lopez TKO-3
Patrick L. Stumberg
Masayoshi Nakatani is a perfectly serviceable lightweight. He’s nearly six feet tall with a 71” reach and possesses both a crisp jab and a versatile right cross. Lopez is going to brutalize him.
Lopez’s speed and power are more than anything Nakatani’s yet faced, and the Japanese veteran isn’t the most adept at maintaining range or forcing people out of the pocket without clinching. Lopez badly outclasses him at close range and there’s little besides the chopping right to stop him from opening up once he gets inside the jab. Nakatani may bank a round while Lopez is figuring out the former’s sheer size, but once Lopez gets the timing down, it won’t be long. Lopez TKO-4
Lewis Watson
Despite the bookies severely disagreeing, this is Teo’s first big test in the paid ranks. Nakatani brings an unbeaten record to the States and has promised to bring the fight to the 21-year-old from the opening bell. Nakatani holds the physical advantages over Lopez, but the Brooklyn fighter should find success in the pocket, beating Nakatani to the punch in all the exchanges. The Japanese lightweight has stopped 12 of his 18 opponents and if Lopez throws wildly I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw the favourite caught with a flash knockdown. Lopez is still a pup, but this could prove a great learning fight in his career. Lopez UD-12