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Charlo vs Derevyanchenko predictions, picks, who wins the fight?

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Jermall Charlo or Sergiy Derevyanchenko, who leaves with the WBC middleweight belt on Saturday?

Saturday night on Showtime PPV (7 pm ET), Jermall Charlo will defend his WBC middleweight title against Sergiy Derevyanchenko, who is trying for a third time to win a world championship as a professional, having previously lost to Daniel Jacobs and Gennadiy Golovkin by razor-thin margins.

Will Charlo retain and stay undefeated, or is Derevyanchenko’s time finally here?

Our staffers weigh in.

Scott Christ

I truly believe Derevyanchenko is the best fighter Jermall Charlo will have faced to date, and by a lot, and I don’t say that as a “hater” toward Jermall. I don’t think he’s fought “bums” exclusively. I think his wins over Austin Trout and Julian Williams at 154 were quite good, and that he’s been clearly physically impressive at 160, even without top opponents. (And being fair to him, it’s as much political as anything, at least in my view.)

Sergiy Derevyanchenko is by far the best opponent he had available for a 2020 bout, and it’s done. Derevyanchenko even abandoned an offer to go to 168 and fight Canelo Alvarez for this bout. He wants to win a world title. He is truly determined. And he’s a really, really good fighter, who arguably should have beaten Daniel Jacobs, Gennadiy Golovkin, or both.

I think he’s better than Charlo, too. I think he’s much more sound mechanically, and as much as that, I don’t think Jermall has the “right” mind set to try and use his jab and length; furthermore, even if he did, Derevyanchenko is going to get inside and force a fight at some point.

And I think he’s going to deserve to win. And I believe they’re going to job the poor guy, and he’ll wind up 0-3 in world title fights, frustrated beyond belief. I really think Derevyanchenko is going to deserve this fight something like 8-4 or 9-3, and that he’s going to get the shaft. And again, it’s not that I don’t think Charlo’s a good fighter, I just think the style matchup favors Derevyanchenko. It won’t be enough, though. I kind of hate to predict a robbery, but I’m also not going to pretend I’ve never seen boxing. My feeling is Derevyanchenko absolutely has to press for a stoppage if he’s going to win this fight, and I do think Jermall is good enough to avoid being stopped. Charlo UD-12

Wil Esco

Sergiy Derevyanchenko clearly gave Gennadiy Golovkin a run for his money in his last outing, which is no small task. But how much did that fight take out of the 34-year-old Derevyanchenko? I’m guessing it took at least something, and that alone could be enough for an older fighter going against a fresh opponent. Derevyanchenko could certainly do damage if he’s able to stay in his preferred range, but I think Charlo will be ready to counteract that with just enough athletic ability to offset Derevyanchenko’s timing.

Styles makes fights, as they say, and this isn’t going to be like Derevyanchenko’s matchup against Golovkin but I bet it’ll be close just the same. Charlo will almost certainly to have to survive some tough moments from Derevyanchenko, and if he’s able to I think that he’ll be able to score enough points to squeak out a close decision. Charlo SD-12

How to Watch the Charlo Doubleheader PPV

Date: Saturday, Sept. 26 | Start Time: 7:00 pm ET
Location: Mohegan Sun, Uncasville, CT
TV: Showtime PPV | Stream:
Live Online Coverage:
Price: $74.99

Patrick L. Stumberg

Speaking as someone who’s been a stalwart GGG fan since he blew up Grzegorz Proksa, Sergiy Derevyanchenko absolutely won that fight. Even if you disagree, holding his own in a vicious infight against even a faded Golovkin deserves your respect.

That kind of effort wins him this fight.

“The Technician” is far and away the strongest middleweight Charlo has yet faced, and though the latter has an even more significant height and reach disadvantage than he did against Golovkin, I’m not convinced Charlo has the skill or temperament to keep him at the end of his jab. When they inevitably meet in the pocket, Derevyanchenko figures to be craftier and more technically sound, a gap that Charlo’s superior one-shot power isn’t enough to bridge.

I haven’t been on the wrong end of a 3-1 Staff Pick split in a while, so maybe this will rectify that. I could very easily see Charlo just being too big and strong for Derevyanchenko, but stranger things have happened this summer. Derevyanchenko SD-12

Lewis Watson

This is a cracker. Deciding how to watch a Stateside fight as a Brit is forever a conundrum, weighing up the stay up vs. wake up vs. try and get a replay in the morning without a spoiler triple-threat match of options. This is a stay up kind of fight, and it’s baffling and depressing in equal amounts how the major broadcasters in the UK have turned their back on it (FYI, FITE TV are streaming it for £14.99).

It’s about time Jermall was tested in a real fight. Credit where credit’s due, but it’s overdue. We really don’t know how good Big Charlo can be at middleweight, but the eye test suggests it’s a healthy weight for the WBC champion*. He’s patient, which can allow his opponent to outwork him, but this patience often pays off landing some heavy artillery when the opportunity presents itself.

Derevyanchenko has promised is a similar fight to the one against Golovkin last October. Whether this is possible from the 34-year-old is to be seen, but so is the toll that that war with GGG took on the body of the Ukrainian. Both losses to Jacobs and Golovkin were tight, debated, controversial, yet arguably avoidable. He tends to fade in the Championship rounds after emptying the tank in the middle stanzas, undoing the better work he does to get himself ahead on the cards. Derevyanchenko won’t be getting any favours from the judges.

I really like Derevyanchenko and it’s hard to pick against my urges of sentiment to see him become third time lucky. But I am going to. Charlo should be able to pick the classier, heavier shots and stifle the aggression of the challenger. 116-111 Charlo with a late knockdown. Charlo UD-12

And the staff winner is...

Jermall Charlo v Dennis Hogan Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images

Jermall Charlo (3-1)!