clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Predictions: Munguia-Rosado and Benavidez-Davis, who wins this weekend’s fights?

Will Jaime Munguia and David Benavidez win as expected, or is there an upset brewing?

Who wins Munguia-Rosado and Benavidez-Davis?
Who wins Munguia-Rosado and Benavidez-Davis?

David Benavidez vs Kyrone Davis

  • Current Odds: Benavidez -3000, Davis +1100

Scott Christ (54-19)

Benavidez was going to destroy Jose Uzcategui, and chances are he’ll destroy Kyrone Davis. Benavidez has beaten the brakes off of guys at this level plenty already. The Uzcategui fight wasn’t really interesting other than the hope it would be a firefight while it lasted. This one is roughly as compelling (which is to say it isn’t, really), only now it’s a question of how early Benavidez starts really forcing the issue on a guy who’s going to want to counter-punch, while Uzcategui probably would have marched into the fire and gotten burnt up.

I guess you can pop that dauber on your boxing bingo card on the “Kyrone Davis will headline on FOX and Showtime in 2021” spot, but no, he doesn’t have a real chance here. Benavidez TKO-5

Wil Esco (58-15)

There are a number of people out there who think David Benavidez is the only fighter around the super middleweight division who could possibly give Canelo Alvarez a run for his money. Benavidez is big, strong, and has an activity level that you don’t often see in the weight class. Whether or not that will prove to be enough against an elite fighter remains to be seen, but this fight against Kyrone Davis isn’t really isn’t that kind of fight. I’m not blaming Benavidez for Jose Uzcategui flunking his drug test, this is a late replacement after all, but it’s hard for me to see where Davis can really trouble someone like Benavidez in this outing. I’m going to take Benavidez to roll in this fight, then call out Canelo for his expected May 2022 return. Benavidez TKO-6

Patrick L. Stumberg (59-14)

David Benavidez may be the last interesting challenge left for Canelo at super middleweight, and Kyrone Davis has the misfortune of being part of his job interview. There’s just nothing going Davis’ way here; he specializes in rapid-fire pocket exchanges, where the much larger, much faster, and much more powerful “Bandera Roja” reigns supreme. Without even the punching power to keep Benavidez off of him, it’s going to turn into target practice before terribly long.

To his credit, Davis was durable enough to tank some huge shots from Anthony Dirrell, so I don’t see him crumbling immediately. I do, however, see him absorbing an increasingly unpleasant beating until his corner or the referee step in to save him. Benavidez TKO-8

And the staff winner is...

Errol Spence Jr. v Shawn Porter Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images

David Benavidez (3-0)!


Jaime Munguia vs Gabriel Rosado

Current Odds: Munguia -700, Rosado +500

Scott Christ (54-19)

I have great respect for Gabriel Rosado and have for a long, long time now; the fact that he’s headlining on a major platform against a contender in 2021, and isn’t being totally disregarded, is pretty impressive for a guy who’s had the career he has had.

But Rosado just doesn’t actually win fights like this very often. He didn’t beat Golovkin or Quillin in 2013, didn’t beat Jermell Charlo or Lemieux in 2014, didn’t beat Willie Monroe Jr in 2016, didn’t beat Maciej Sulecki in 2019, etc. He’s a viable opponent for Munguia right now because Munguia still needs that vital bit of seasoning at 160 if he’s going to get in with a big dog next year, which he may or may not. Rosado’s KO of Melikuziev was impressive and got him this fight, but that was an arrogant fighter walking onto a shot; “Bek the Bully” had convinced himself he was an unstoppable juggernaut. Munguia does fight aggressively, but not the way Melikuziev was approaching Rosado.

Could Rosado out-box Munguia? Yeah, but if it turns into that kind of fight, chances are it means Rosado has neutralized Munguia’s pressure to a degree and turned the fight into a stinker, with Munguia probably still the one pushing whatever pace there is, and judges would probably still favor the unbeaten A-side in that scenario. Maybe Rosado has the true “one night” in him at 35, but I just don’t see it. I do think he’ll go the distance. Munguia UD-12

Wil Esco (58-15)

Man, it feels like Gabe Rosado has risen from the ashes more than once, and that’s because everytime we’re ready to write him off for good he manages to pull off a win that propels him back towards the top. At the top level Rosado hasn’t proven that he’s got enough to actually get over the hump, but he always puts his heart into every fight which is what makes fans really gravitate towards him. I expect nothing less than Rosado giving it his all this weekend, but the question is whether or not he’s actually talented enough, and not shop worn enough, to get a win over a solid Jaime Munguia here. Rosado is experienced and can be crafty, but he’s also a hard luck fighter who tends to be on the losing end of close fights.

I think this fight will end up being closer than some people think with Rosado giving Munguia a run for his money by mixing up boxing with banging, but I think Munguia will be able to match Rosado’s efforts and take this fight to the final bell, where Rosado will once again get the short end of the stick. I’m taking Munguia to win a hard fought decision. Munguia UD-12

Patrick L. Stumberg (59-14)

In a weird way, Munguia’s actually a worse matchup for Gabe Rosado than more technically adept fighters like Daniel Jacobs. The man only has one speed and one gameplan regardless of what his opponent brings to the table: march forward, absorb the majority of incoming fire with his face, and pulverize their body in return. Rosado’s blend of supreme grit and underrated craft aren’t going to slow Munguia down, meaning he’s in for a firefight against a younger, fresher, and heavier-handed bruiser.

“King’s” probably still tough enough to stay on his feet unless that mass of scar tissue he calls a face springs another leak, but without the pop to keep Munguia off of him, he’s going to find himself overwhelmed as the fight progresses, especially since Munguia’s too durable for another Melikuziev miracle. Munguia’s youth and engine carry him to victory in a gritty, close-quarters battle. Munguia UD-12

And the staff winner is...

Jaime Munguia v Kamil Szeremeta Photo by Sye Williams/Golden Boy/Getty Images

Jaime Munguia (3-0)!