Canelo Alvarez is a heavier favorite against Caleb Plant than he has been against most of his recent opponents, with oddsmakers simply not liking Plant’s chances to pull the upset at all.
On the one hand, lines aren’t really a surprise, or shouldn’t be to anyone. On the other, this is the widest Canelo (56-1-2, 38 KO) has been favored in quite a while, not counting his February fight with Avni Yildirm, which was a nonsense matchup.
In other fights since 2019, Canelo was clearly but not this widely favored against Daniel Jacobs, Sergey Kovalev, Callum Smith, and Billy Joe Saunders. It’s hard not to say that Plant (21-0, 12 KO) is indeed being counted out more than those fighters were.
But oddsmakers don’t fight the fights, of course, and neither do we. There are plenty of people around boxing who think Plant has the tools and style to give Canelo some trouble, but then there’s the rub — I don’t see any of those people picking Plant to win, either, and that’s what the line is about: Winning the fight, not being competitive.
Props on the fight:
- To go the distance: Yes +160, No -225
- Outcomes: Canelo by decision +220, Canelo by KO/TKO/DQ -210, Draw +2500, Plant by decision +1200, Plant by KO/TKO/DQ +1200
- Anthony Dirrell -380 vs Marcos Hernandez +295
- Rey Vargas -1600 vs Leonardo Baez +850
- Elvis Rodriguez -170 vs Juan Pablo Romero +140