Joseph Parker and Derek Chisora met earlier this year, and will do it again Saturday on DAZN, seven months after a first meeting that ended in a split decision going Parker’s way.
Can Parker (29-2, 21 KO) do a more thorough job this time around, or will Chisora (32-11, 23 KO) snap a two-fight losing streak with a minor upset?
Parker vs Chisora 2 predictions
Scott Christ (64-22)
I would point out that Derek Chisora has only once lost three straight fights, back in 2011-12, and he shouldn’t have, because the first of those was a flat robbery in Helsinki against Robert Helenius. Chisora’s otherwise been careful; when he takes a loss, he scales back the competition, gets a win or five, and takes another good fight. But he is 37 and the higher-end paydays are going to evaporate sooner than later, so taking a third straight significant bout, even losing the first two, makes sense.
I expect Chisora to do his usual, he’ll give this a solid go, but unless Parker is worse than last time out or Chisora just catches him with something huge, he’s not going to win. Odds are against Parker being worse; though it seems like he’s been around forever, he’s still 29, the much younger and, even more, much fresher fighter here. If he’s made a couple or three positive changes in camp, he should win this one a bit more convincingly than last time. But Chisora will win rounds; Parker doesn’t really dominate anyone beyond the totally over-matched. Parker UD-12
Wil Esco (70-16)
Derek Chisora is really an easy fighter to root for because of his blue-collar style and approach to boxing, always delivering on action whether it’s to his benefit or detriment. Chisora fought hard and close with Joseph Parker in their first meeting, and I honestly believe that’s about as good of an effort that Chisora can offer at this point in his career. Chisora is just a hard luck fighter in some instances and even if you believe he deserved to edge his last fight against Parker, I just think mentally Chisora has been conditioned to get the short end of the stick which could affect his performance here.
I don’t expect Chisora to mail this one in, he’ll definitely give it a go, but I just think Chisora will put himself in an all-too-familiar situation where he’s down on the cards if he can’t manage a stoppage. Parker has the better boxing ability of the two fighters, and having gone the distance with Chisora one time around without Chisora planning any real change in attack means I think Parker should be able to be better prepared this time around. Parker MD-12
Patrick L. Stumberg (71-15)
Joseph Parker has cemented himself as one of the most frustrating heavyweights in the entire sport to watch. If he had any sort of killer instinct at all, he’d have gotten Chisora out of there in the late rounds, but he instead let a completely exhausted “Del Boy” will his way back into what should have been a narrow decision win. Parker has the tools to be a menace, yet he’s saddled with a disinclination to actually use them. Still, the fact that Chisora couldn’t maintain his pace against a resistance-free target is more than a bit worrying. The man’s 37 years old and has more mileage on him than half the British scene put together; while it’s not surprising that his motor isn’t there anymore, he needs that sort of relentlessness to make up for his slowness and one-note attack.
One guy fought his heart out and went just about dead even with a guy who barely followed a game plan. I’ll take the guy who just needs a few tweaks over the guy who may not be physically capable of turning in a better performance than last time. Parker UD-12
And the staff winner is...
Joseph Parker (3-0)!
Gongora vs Richards predictions
Scott Christ (64-22)
I want to pick Lerrone Richards in the minor upset just for further unpredictability and messiness beyond Canelo Alvarez at 168 lbs, but if it happens, I think he’d need some favorable scoring. Richards is a good boxer, but a complete lack of zip on his fastball is going to be majorly troublesome to him at some point beyond the domestic and European title levels, and while Gongora’s claim to a “world title” is iffy at best unless you’re dying to recognize a fifth sanctioning body because four aren’t enough, he’s looked a world level super middleweight against Ali Akhmedov and Chris Pearson.
Richards can and probably will win some rounds on craft, and possibly just on Gongora feeling out exactly what he has early. But the Ecuadorian will eventually turn up the heat, either because he feels it’s time or because he has to, and if Richards can’t constantly make him miss or at least badly fluster Gongora, it’s going to be a problem. If Richards gets the fight he needs, there’s a high chance this one stinks to watch. I’ll take Richards to ugly it up enough to “stay in the fight” a while, only for Gongora to eventually break him down. Some step up is going to be the one that’s too far for Richards’ skill set, and I’ll say it’s this one. Gongora TKO-11
Wil Esco (70-16)
I’ll readily admit that Carlos Gongora may be a better fighter than I originally made him out to be. He’s not really all that dynamic or flashy, but he’s very steady and consistent and there is something to be said for that. Gongora flashed some thudding power to the body and head when he beat up Chris Pearson in his last outing, and I think he’s becoming more confident in himself as his career progresses and that he’ll be coming into this fight fully committed to get the job done.
Lerrone Richards on the other hand doesn’t strike me as being as fluid or polished a fighter as Gongora is, despite whatever physical strength and athleticism he carries. I expect Gongora will apply the pressure against Richards and I think Richards will be surprised by the step up in class here and, since he doesn’t have the power to knock Gongora out, I think it’s just a matter of time before he’s broken down. I think Gongora snags his third consecutive stoppage here. Gongora TKO-9
Patrick L. Stumberg (71-15)
Gotta say, I like the mirror match aspect of this one. It figures to be a nip and tuck affair between two rangy southpaws, but three things have me leaning Gongora’s way: his aggression, his slight edges in height and reach, and the fact that Richards just can’t punch at all. It’s not like he’s got power and just elects to throw scoring blows; even when he visibly (and audibly) tried to put some sauce behind his shots against De Carolis, it had zero effect.
You can’t say the same about Gongora, as Ali Akhmedov found out.
Gongora just seems far more likely to actually hurt Richards than vice-versa, or at the very least land the sorts of blows necessary to stand out in a battle of potshots. Consistent volume and forward motion carry him to victory. Gongora UD-12