Devin Haney remains a slight favorite going into tonight’s fight with George Kambosos Jr, even though Haney is the road fighter in Melbourne, Australia, and even though Kambosos has earned the right to be called the division’s top dog.
Lines have narrowed just a bit over the last week or so, but really not by much.
As of this moment, DraftKings Sportsbook have Haney favored at -170 on the moneyline, with Kambosos at +140.
Haney (27-0, 15 KO) is far, far away from home, but father and trainer Bill Haney has received a late visa and will be there in time for the fight after all, which may put him somewhat more at ease; his dad’s been there for all 27 of his pro fights so far, and this will be No. 28.
There was some drama on the scales Friday, with Kambosos (20-0, 10 KO) initially missing weight, then coming back about halfway into his two-hour window and making it with room to spare.
My personal opinion is fans sometimes read too much into these things. Kambosos did look dry, but he will have had plenty of time to rehydrate. He wasn’t out there ralphing in a bucket like Miguel Berchelt before weighing in to fight Oscar Valdez, and he didn’t shed every drop from his body and still fail to make weight.
The lines didn’t move any after the weigh-in, either.
Even though Kambosos is the underdog, it’s not by much, and a far sight from him being around +500 at best when the lines closed for his fight with Teofimo Lopez last November. He’s clearly earned a level of respect from that win, and there’s far fewer people truly doubting him — and rightly so.
This is also easily the closest line of Haney’s career to date, as he’s generally been a pretty overwhelming favorite. In his most relevant matchups, wins over Jorge Linares and JoJo Diaz, he was a far heavier favorite when the lines got to the end before fight night.
The favored method of victory is Haney by decision or technical decision, which is even money right now at +100. Haney by KO/TKO/DQ is +500, while Kambosos is +240 to win by decision or technical decision and +550 to win by KO/TKO/DQ.
Any specific round bet for a stoppage presents big money opportunities. Haney’s longest odds are in the first two rounds, which are both +10000 for him, while rounds seven, eight, and nine are all at +4000.
Rounds one and two are also +10000 for Kambosos, so nobody’s expecting an early stoppage here, but he has +3500 odds for rounds eight, nine, and 10.
A draw, for what it’s worth, is listed at +1600.
Kambosos vs Haney undercard moneylines
- Jason Moloney -900 vs Aston Palicte +550
- Junior Fa -1200 vs Lucas Browne +700
Stephen Fulton Jr vs Danny Roman
Showtime’s main event is also seen by boxing fans as a really good matchup, but Stephen Fulton Jr is a pretty healthy favorite against Danny Roman, with Fulton set to defend the WBC and WBO junior featherweight titles.
Fulton (20-0, 8 KO) hasn’t lost yet, but some did believe the judges were a bit generous in his November win over Brandon Figueroa Jr, which unified those two belts. Personally, I’m not one of them, I thought Fulton fairly won that fight, but Roman (29-3-1, 10 KO) is a really good fighter, still a top contender, a former unified titlist himself.
But Fulton is at -600 for this one, and Roman at +425. It’s hard to say Roman is a good bet, but those odds are tempting for throwaway cash.
This is another fight expected to go the distance. Fulton by decision or technical decision is -250, and he’s +400 by KO/TKO/DQ. Roman is +700 by decision or technical decision and +900 by KO/TKO/DQ. The draw is +1800.
For individual rounds, Fulton is +2000 in round nine, with rounds eight and 10 both at +2800, the shortest odds. Roman’s shortest odds for rounds are the seventh through 10th, all listed at +6500.
Fulton vs Roman undercard odds
In the co-feature, David Morrell Jr is -1800 to beat Kalvin Henderson, who is at +950, and the odds are favoring a stoppage this time. Morrell is -650 to win by KO/TKO/DQ, and +500 to win by decision or technical decision. A draw is +2500.
The short odds for an individual round pick are Morrell in the fifth, which is +550. He’s +600 in round four, and +650 in the third and sixth rounds, so the money is expecting a first half finish.
Kenichi Ogawa vs Joe Cordina
The odds for DAZN’s main event from Cardiff may surprise some, or may not. Hometown fighter Joe Cordina is favored at -170 to lift the IBF junior lightweight title from Kenichi Ogawa, who is at +140.
Cordina (14-0, 8 KO) is taking a major step up against Ogawa (26-1-1, 18 KO), but there are some things to like here. Let’s say first it would be foolish to ignore Cordina is fighting at home. It doesn’t always pan out for the home fighter if something goes to the cards, but pretending it never does is a great way to lose your ass betting on boxing, too.
But in less skeptical terms, let’s not forget that Cordina was considered a rising potential star by Matchroom not that long ago. Yes, he’s stagnated, but he has talent, and Ogawa is 34 and hardly untouchable or unbeatable. Everyone liked his win over Azinga Fuzile last November, it was a good win, but those scores also came back 114-111, 115-110, and 115-110; when you factor in that Ogawa dropped Fuzile three times, yeah, he deserved the win for sure, but that means the judges had the fight 6-6, 7-5, and 7-5 in terms of rounds.
We also saw Ogawa out-boxed a fair bit by Tevin Farmer back in 2017, though judges gave it to Ogawa via controversial split decision (in the U.S.), and Ogawa had the win over-turned when he failed a post-fight drug test.
This one is expected to see the cards, too. Cordina is -110 by decision or technical decision, and a very wide +700 for a KO/TKO/DQ victory. Cordina’s record doesn’t suggest someone who flat-out can’t punch, but he’s also gone the distance in his last four more meaningful fights, and most of his stoppage wins came early in his career, before he was facing better competition.
Ogawa, on the other hand, is favored to win by stoppage if he wins at all. He’s +260 for a KO/TKO/DQ, and +450 to get a decision or technical decision.
A draw is +1400.
Ogawa vs Cordina undercard odds
- Faroukh Kourbanov +600 vs Zelfa Barrett -1000
- Dalton Smith -2500 vs Mauro Perouene +1000
- Skye Nicolson -3000 vs Gabriele Bouvier +1200
- Gamal Yafai -3500 vs Sean Cairns +1200
- Calum French -5000 vs Gadatamen Taylor +1300
- Monique Bux -3000 vs Ester Konecna +1200
Best bets of the weekend
First off, I am not a professional gambler. I bet like an idiot. But that said, last week I rolled with a parlay of Gervonta Davis by KO/TKO/DQ + Erislandy Lara by KO/TKO/DQ + Jesus Ramos by decision + Eduardo Ramirez by decision, which came to +634 total. That hit.
I actually don’t love any of this weekend’s odds. I’m on record picking Kambosos and Cordina to win, but the Kambosos situation may have shifted after the weigh-in, and the odds aren’t so long you get any big return, anyway. And with Cordina a slight favorite despite being unproven at level and 30 years old himself, that doesn’t seem like a great bet, either. There’s just not much there.
If I have to pick a a best bet — and I don’t, this is just for conversation’s sake — it would either be take the money line on Danny Roman at +425 or take a Fulton stoppage at +400. My actual pick for the fight is Fulton by decision, but those lines are enticing. Fulton is not a big puncher, but I can see a scenario where to stay in the fight, Roman expends a lot of energy and gets himself gassed out a bit, leaving him vulnerable as the fight wears on. He’s 32, which isn’t old just by the number itself, but he’s also had some hard fights in his career.
Are you running with anything this weekend?