clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Who will win Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz? Predictions, preview, and breakdown

Jake Paul and Nate Diaz fight on Saturday, but who will win?

If you buy something from an SB Nation link, Vox Media may earn a commission. See our ethics statement.

Jake Paul and Nate Diaz fight on Saturday, but who will win?
Jake Paul and Nate Diaz fight on Saturday, but who will win?
Esther Lin/Most Valuable Promotions

Scott Christ (66-29)

First off, I would like to note that “ya boy” (that’s me — people online say this a lot, I don’t know why) is 14-1 in the last 15 picks, and the only miss was a gamble on “J-Rock.” There’s a new sheriff in third place. From here, I plan to not even give John the taillights. He’s toast. History.

Jake Paul will probably win this fight because, like most of the MMA guys Paul has boxed, Nate Diaz doesn’t actually give a shit about being here, doesn’t really care about his “reputation,” and is ready to cash a real nice check. I’m not saying Nate won’t try to win, but he’s also much naturally smaller than Paul and isn’t a very good boxer. Not that Paul is something great, but we’ve seen the MMA guys try, including Anderson Silva, who may have been 114 years old but was a better boxer than Diaz. This is a rerun.

I’ve said in the past that I thought Paul would KO Diaz if they fought, but the energy around this fight — what energy it has anyway — is just so tepid. Paul’s coming off a loss and not quite so boastful, and the boxing thing has lost momentum for him. Diaz is, again, just kinda here. This feels like a boring ass decision and two happy trips to the bank when the checks clear. Paul UD-10

Bet on Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz and more boxing with DraftKings Sportsbook!

Wil Esco (74-21)

What is there to say about this fight? I recently saw Nate Diaz doing some boxing workouts and boy did he look awful. Paul obviously isn’t a great boxer, but he’s also not completely shot either. The fact this fight is even taking place is entirely cynical. Paul TKO-4

John Hansen (65-30)

Tommy Fury is just the random guy at the county fair or the disreputable mall parking lot carnival walking around with the giant stuffed Tweety Bird or oversized Dr. Seuss hat. Yeah, someone occasionaly does beat the unfavorable odds, and everyone remembers seeing them strut around with the prize that proves it.

But the game is always rigged in favor of the carnies. That’s why carnival game operators dominate the annual Forbes list of wealthiest people, alongside tech financiers, mining magnates, and people with a foolproof system for playing casino games.

Put me down for Jake Paul by unanimous decision across however many rounds this is scheduled to take. And I’ll see you all again in six months when the traveling extravaganza of diminishing returns makes it’s way back around. Paul UD-10

Patrick Stumberg (71-23)

I was considering putting on my official BadLeftHook Big MMA Poobah hat and doing a deep dive into Diaz’s career, but to be honest, it doesn’t seem worth it. Maybe Nate’s apathy has rubbed off on me. Let’s just look at the details.

Nate Diaz’s best fighting weight is 155 pounds. He has wins at 170, but if you go through his career, all but two came against other 155-pounders competing above their ideal weights. Nate Diaz is also 38 years old and by all accounts does not give one solitary s**t about this matchup outside of scoring a payday, which I fully understand and do not judge him for. I’m sure he’ll be as inhumanly durable as ever and will probably still have better cardio than Paul, but he’s just too damn small. It’s not like he’s elusive on his best days, either; while he’s weirdly good at staying just out of his opponents’ reach, Nate’s notoriously flat-footed. Paul’s not allowed to kick him in the legs like everyone else, but it does mean that verbal assaults are Nate’s only defense against Paul clinching if the fight ever gets away from him.

As long as Paul doesn’t punch himself out of his own volition, expect him to jab and grapple his way past a lethargic Diaz for an uninspiring decision. Paul UD-10

Quick Pick!

Amanda Serrano vs Heather Hardy 2

  • Scott: Serrano UD-10
  • Wil: Serrano UD-10
  • John: Serrano UD-10
  • Patrick: Serrano UD-10

Sign up for the newsletter Sign up for the Bad Left Hook Daily Roundup newsletter!

A daily roundup of all your global boxing news from Bad Left Hook